产量飙高库存反降方管市场回调空间暂不大

今日黑色系宽幅震荡，强原料弱成材，尾盘双焦及铁矿石收涨，期螺、热卷仍然下跌。移仓换月之际主力伴随大量减仓，获利套现，但总体表现相对温和，在利好占据主导的情况下，并未出现特别剧烈的波动。Today, the black series of wide shocks, strong raw materials and weak finished products, tail coke and iron ore rose, snail, hot coil still fell. During the period of changing positions for the moon, the main force was accompanied by a large number of reduction in positions and profit arbitrage, but the overall performance was relatively mild, and there was no particularly violent fluctuation under the dominant favorable situation.现货方面，受夜盘回落影响以及市场恐高情绪的困扰，市场心态偏于观望，大部分商家加快出货迅速，售价出现小幅松动。且实际成交亦存在压价出货的情况。但钢价 连续数月的向上拉涨，已处年内高位，下游终端采购积极性亦不是很高，整体成交量表现一般，对价格持续拉涨起到抑制，短期上方空间较为有限。Spot, affected by the decline in the night market and the fear of high sentiment in the market, the market mentality bias to wait-and-see, most of the merchants to speed up the delivery of goods quickly, price slightly loosened. And the actual transaction also exists at the price of shipment. However, steel prices have been rising for several consecutive months, has been at a high level in the year, downstream terminal procurement enthusiasm is not high, the overall turnover performance is general, the price continued to rise to suppress, short-term upper space is limited.同 时，由于主力移仓1901合约，后期将面临较往年更为严格的采暖季限产。据最新消息，继江西、广西、河北邢台以及唐山之后，山东省公布打赢蓝天保卫战作战 方案，同时浙江开始推动实施钢铁等行业超低排放改造。加之环保常态化造成的临时性限电、限产的突然袭击，对市场持续产生供给收缩的预期仍然偏强。At the same time, due to the main relocation of warehouse 1901 contract, the latter will face more stringent heating season production restrictions than in previous years. According to the latest news, following Jiangxi, Guangxi, Hebei Xingtai and Tangshan, Shandong Province announced the plan to win the blue sky defense battle, while Zhejiang began to promote the implementation of ultra-low emission transformation of steel and other industries. With the sudden attack of temporary power cuts and production limits caused by normalization of environmental protection, the expectation of continuous supply contraction in the market is still strong.另外，下游在采暖季之前赶工的现象在往年表现突出，对市场的影响较大。今年限电力度较去年加强，或仍出现类似情况，将对价格形成支撑。虽然短期内未必产生明 显拉动，但随着高温多雨天气的减少，钢市需求暂不存在较大的压力。这在库存数据方面已经体现出来，最新数据显示，螺纹社会库存继续下降，前期担心的累库现 象并未出现，这是在7月钢产量创纪录高位的情况下的库存降低，对市场信心起到支撑。但同时厂库小幅上抬，或说明贸易商存在谨慎心理，主动备货开始减少。In addition, the downstream in the heating season before the rush phenomenon in previous years, the market has a greater impact. This year's power limit is stronger than last year, or similar conditions will still appear, which will support the price formation. Although the short-term may not produce a significant pull, but with the reduction of high temperature and rainy weather, steel market demand temporarily does not exist a greater pressure. This has been reflected in the inventory data, the latest data show that the threaded social inventory continues to decline, the previous worry about the accumulation of the phenomenon did not appear, this is in July steel production record high in the case of inventory reduction, to support market confidence. But at the same time the warehouse slightly increased, or that traders are cautious, active inventory began to reduce.而当前恐高情绪仍然挥之不去，不仅体现期货市场情绪面以及资金面，终端接受度也在下降。期现货市场技术面也正处在关键点位，虽然中美贸易战停留在你打我一拳我回敬你一拳的“打闹”阶段，但其不确定性始终是悬在头上的一把利剑。The current fear of heights is still lingering, not only reflects the emotional and financial aspects of the futures market, terminal acceptance is also declining. The technical aspect of the spot market is also at a critical point. Although the Sino-US trade war is still at the stage of "fighting" when you hit me and I give you a blow back, its uncertainty is always a sharp sword hanging over your head.预计，近期钢市上方空间有限，短期可能要面临回调一下的可能。但向下又有支撑，在没有重大利多或利空的前提下，市场仍然保持高位震荡的可能性较大。It is predicted that there will be limited space on the steel market in the near future, which may be faced with a short-term correction. But there is downward support, in the absence of significant bullish or bearish premises, the market is still likely to remain high volatility.据监测数据显示，今日，国内重点城市Ф25mm三级螺纹钢平均价格4406元(吨价，下同)，较昨日跌6元；国内重点城市Ф6.5mm高线平均价格为4728元，较昨日跌1元；国内重点城市5.5mm热轧卷板平均价格为4310元，较昨日跌10元；国内重点中心城市1.0mm冷板的平均价格为4744元，较昨日跌2元；国内重点城市20mm中板平均价格4414元，较昨日跌4元。According to the monitoring data, the average price of grade_25mm high-speed wire rod in the key cities of China is 4 406 yuan (tonnage price, the same below), 6 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of grade_6.5mm high-speed wire rod in the key cities of China is 4 728 yuan, 1 yuan lower than yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil in the key cities of China is 4 310 yuan, 10 yuan lower than yesterday; The average price of the 1.0mm cold plate in the central city is 4 744 yuan, down 2 yuan from yesterday, and the average price of the 20mm medium plate in the key cities is 4 414 yuan, down 4 yuan from yesterday.原料方面，今日，唐山地区150*150普碳方坯3900元，较昨日持平；京唐港61.5%品位澳大利亚PB铁矿粉价格为505元，较昨日涨2元；唐山地区准一级冶金焦含税到厂价格2160元，较昨日持平。As for raw materials, the price of 150 *150 carbon billets in Tangshan is 3 900 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday; the price of 61.5% Australian PB iron ore powder in Jingtang Port is 505 yuan, which is 2 yuan higher than yesterday; the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan is 2 160 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday. 方管