本周方管涨幅较大 下周或窄幅波动为主

本周(8.6-8.10)，国内方管价格涨幅依然较大，监测数据显示，截至8月10日，国内十大重点城市4寸方管均价为4528 元(吨价，下同)，比上周末方管价格上涨44元，其中中心城市唐山涨50元、天津涨40元、北京涨80元、西安涨50元、武汉涨70元、上海涨70元、济 南涨50元、广州涨30元，大部分中心城市报价继续上涨。This week (8.6-8.10), the domestic square tube price is still a big increase, monitoring data show that as of August 10, the average price of four-inch square tube in ten major cities in China is 4528 yuan (tonnage, the same below), 44 yuan higher than last weekend square tube price, including the central city of Tangshan 50 yuan, Tianjin 40 yuan, Beijing 80 yuan, Xi'an 50 yuan, Wuhan 50 yuan. Prices in most of the central cities continued to rise.原料方面Raw materials本周唐山钢坯价格继续上涨，目前唐山钢坯出厂报价3910元，比上周同期涨60元。周初，伴随市场传出两则消息：一是临汾市长时隔一年多再次被环 保部约谈；而是南方某大型钢厂因环保被大面积停炉；两则消息使得期盘一度冲击前高。另外前期被限产的轧钢厂如期恢复生产，而由于钢坯在前期便一直处于供求 双弱，如今需求先快速反弹，自然引得钢坯厂惜售涨价，因此本周钢坯表现较为强势。但前期价格拉得太高，短期若没有利好继续跟进，短期或有小幅调整可能。Tangshan billet prices continued to rise this week, Tangshan billet factory price 3910 yuan, 60 yuan higher than the same period last week. At the beginning of the week, two pieces of news came out: the mayor of Linfen was interviewed again by the Ministry of Environmental Protection more than a year later, but a large-scale steel mill in the South was shut down because of environmental protection; two pieces of news made the futures price hit a high before. In addition, the earlier restricted rolling mills resumed production on schedule, and because billets in the previous period has been in weak supply and demand, and now demand rebounded quickly, naturally led to billet mills to sell price rises, so this week the performance of billets is stronger. But the price is too high in the early stage. If there is no positive follow-up in the short term, there may be a slight adjustment in the short run.本周国内带钢价格持续高位震荡。截至8月10日，唐山355系列带钢价格4150元，报价比上周五涨50元。本周，期货与钢坯的连续拉涨继续提振 现货市场信心，带钢价格也跟着水涨船高。带钢价格的连续拉涨，使得下游商家操作偏谨慎，仅按需拿货，整一周的带钢现货市场成交一般，终端需求不足，而钢厂 挺价意愿十分强烈，就导致了很多管厂和带钢形成倒挂。而唐山地区受限产影响库存普遍不高，成本端也是居高不下，厂家出货价格也是坚挺向上。所以即使需求端 区域弱势的情况，在各种利好支撑下价格下行阻力明显。预计下周国内带钢市场价格或将仍高位整理。This week, domestic strip prices continued to be high and volatile. As of August 10th, the price of Tangshan's 355 series strip was 4150 yuan, and the quoted price was 50 yuan higher than that of last Friday. This week, the continuous rally in futures and billets continued to boost spot market confidence, strip prices have also risen with the water. Strip prices continue to rise, making downstream merchants operate cautiously, only take goods on demand, the whole week of the spot market for strip steel transactions in general, the terminal demand is insufficient, and steel mills are very willing to bid, resulting in a lot of pipe mills and strip forming inverted hanging. In Tangshan area, the inventory affected by restricted production is generally not high, and the cost side is also high, and the manufacturer's delivery price is also strong and upward. Therefore, even if the demand side is weak, the downward drag on prices is obvious under the support of various favorable conditions. It is expected that domestic steel market prices will remain high next week.管厂方面Pipe factory本周，钢市上涨行情仍在继续。但与上周相比，市场整体成交情况有所降温。周初，随着政治局会议确定扩大内需政策以及货币宽松政策的落实，钢市表现 出明显的提振效果，价格一涨再涨。受其原料带动，国内方管报价继续追涨。尤其是周二，河北地区管厂出厂价格盘中再次出现二次追涨的局面，但由于价格拉涨过 快，管厂反应高价位成交受阻，市场恐高情绪继续增浓。周后期，受原料企稳影响，津冀地区管厂出厂价格暂时以稳为主，成交一般，厂内成品材库存小幅增高。成 本方面，以唐山地区为例，目前主流管厂4寸方管出厂报价为4350-4400元，与主导钢厂355mm系列带钢出厂价相差200元左右，成本端继续抬升， 除去带钢厂的优惠政策、管厂出货时议价空间以及其他各地原料运输成本等各方面因素，目前管厂倒挂情况再现。This week, the steel market continues to rise. But compared with last week, the overall turnover of the market has cooled. At the beginning of the week, with the Politburo meeting to determine the expansion of domestic demand policy and the implementation of monetary easing policy, the steel market showed a significant boost effect, prices rose again and again. Driven by its raw materials, domestic quotas continue to rise. Especially on Tuesday, Hebei pipe factory ex-factory prices in the second round of the market chase up the situation, but because the price rose too fast, pipe factory reaction to high price transaction blocked, the market fear of heightened sentiment continues to grow. Affected by the stabilization of raw materials in late Zhou Dynasty, the ex-factory prices of pipe factories in Tianjin and Hebei Provinces were mainly stable for the time being, and the transaction was general. The inventory of finished products in the factory increased slightly. In terms of cost, taking Tangshan area as an example, the current 4-inch square pipe ex-factory quotation of the mainstream pipe mill is 4350-4400 yuan, which is about 200 yuan different from the 355mm series strip ex-factory price of the leading steel mill. The cost side continues to rise, except for the preferential policies of the strip mill, the bargaining space at the time of delivery of the pipe mill and other factors such as raw material transportation costs in various parts of the country. At present, pipe factory upside down situation reappears.监测数据显示，截至8月10日，唐山友发产4寸(3.75)新国标方管现金出厂价格为4370元，比上周同期涨70元；唐山京华产4寸(3.75)新国标方管现金出厂价格为4350元，比上周同期涨50元。Monitoring data show that as of August 10, Tangshan Youfa 4 inch (3.75) new GB cash ex-factory price is 4370 yuan, up 70 yuan from the same period last week; Tangshan Jinghua 4 inch (3.75) new GB cash ex-factory price is 4350 yuan, up 50 yuan from the same period last week.市场方面Market aspect本周，大部分地区方管报价有明显跟涨，但贸易商普遍反应终端需求依然偏弱，高价位成交困难，不少地区出现倒挂现象，因此操作起来更加谨慎，市场观 望情绪较浓。另外受成交不畅影响，社会库存开始小幅增加。本周(8.10)国内方管库存：据不完全统计22个城市库存27.71万吨，较上周同期增 0.11万吨，增幅0.39%。This week, most of the region's square tube quotations have been markedly rising, but traders generally respond to terminal demand is still weak, high-level trading difficulties, many regions appear hanging upside down phenomenon, so the operation is more cautious, market wait-and-see sentiment is strong. In addition, due to the sluggish turnover, social inventories began to increase slightly. Domestic Square Tube Inventory this week (8.10): According to incomplete statistics, 22 cities inventory 277,100 tons, compared with the same period last week, an increase of 0.11 million tons, an increase of 0.39%.总的来看，近期陆续出台的秋冬季大气污染攻坚方案以及多区域限电通知将对钢市继续形成支撑，但价格拉涨过快带来的恐高情绪也不在断蔓延。而另一方 面，厂商倒挂情况明显，总体挺价意愿较强，短期大幅下跌的概率不大，而大幅拉涨以后市场或有小幅调整诉求，因此短期方管价格或窄幅波动为主。Overall, the recent air pollution battle plan in autumn and winter and multi-regional power limit notification will continue to form a support for the steel market, but prices pulled too fast brought about by fear of heights are also spreading. On the other hand, the upside-down situation of manufacturers is obvious, the overall willingness to offer is strong, the probability of a short-term sharp decline is not large, and after a sharp rise in the market may have a small adjustment demand, so short-term square tube prices or narrow fluctuations mainly. 方管